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Monday
08Mar2010

SPX failing at longer-term resistance

DateMonday, March 8, 2010 at 8:45PM

Today the market formed a doji as the bulls were unable to get above 1141.05.  When looking at the daily chart it is hard to see where the resistance is coming from at 1141.  It is only when you zoom out to a weekly chart that see what is acting as resistance at 1141. 

The 1141 level is the 200EMA for the weekly SPX chart.  This moving average has acted as previous resistance as well.  It contained the rally in January and looks to be trying to contain it again.  SPX is also being contained by the down trendline that begins in Oct and connects to the January high.

If we zoom out even further to the montly SPX chart, there is a pair of moving average that are acting as resistance.  On the monthly SPX Chart 50 Day EMA is at 1145 and the 89 EMA is at 1149. These moving averages like the weekly 200EMA capped the rally in January.

Here is the daily chart showing today's doji and the 1141-1145 resistance level. Also notice the overbought Stoch that matches the overbought observation from the post below.

I mentioned Friday in pre-market (see Friday's post) that the top should be around 1135, I still think we are seeing a topping process and there may be a short-term move to 1145-1150 but the market won't close at those levels.

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Monday
08Mar2010

The market is overbought

DateMonday, March 8, 2010 at 6:21PM

The market is very overbought, at this point SPX has rallied 6.3% since its close on 2/5.  The Stoch on SPX are showing signals of an overbought market but there are also other non-traditional indicators that are showing overbought. Here are charts that I use to show me overbought or oversold.

NYTV ratios:
When the Up-volume to total volume gets to extremes is can be seen in this chart as the moving average climbs above the overbought line at the .65 level.  This means that 65% volume is up, so the crowd is heavy on the bull side.  This overbought condition can be seen as also in the Down-Volume to total Volume ratio.  You can see from the chart the right now the down-volume makes up 32% of the market. This historically very low. 
These have been good indicators of overbought and oversold markets.

MEGA B:
This chart is similar to the NYTV volume ratios, expect this chart does not have ratios.  Instead it is a moving average of Up and Down volume.  Again the market has certain extremes and when the moving averages go below them it signals an overbought or an oversold condition.  For this purpose overbought is when the Down Volume moving average is below the green line.  Oversold is when the Up-Volume is below its purple line.

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Friday
05Mar2010

Snowballed!

DateFriday, March 5, 2010 at 7:49AM

Blame it on the snow! That's right today's jobless numbers will be solely because of the snow we saw in February, the shitty economy had nothing to do it with.  According to CNBC the snow in the North East(a section of the U.S) caused this high number.  Now the media is blaming mother nature for the economy's problem.  Brilliant! Who believes this crap!

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Friday
05Mar2010

Jobless Charts

DateFriday, March 5, 2010 at 7:34AM

SPX Daily Chart: Will be watching the 1131 level as resistance.

SPX Weekly:  Watching the down trendline since the start of this bear market

NYSI: This oscillator is nearing a turning point, just have to wait for the stars to align.   See the green line for the last time the stars aligned

 I am starting to think this market tops around 1135

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Wednesday
03Mar2010

Are the bears wishing on an inverted shooting star

DateWednesday, March 3, 2010 at 7:49AM

 

Yesterday SPX was rejected at the upper level of a resistance zone.  Yesterday's inverted shooting star candle shows that the bull had control through out the day but before the close the bears increased the selling pressure and moved the market down.

Right now that is the only thing bearish about this market.  Internals still are climbing.  NYAD made another new high and the NYMO divergence was broken yesterday.

But one cavet to the bulls argument is NYMO is not in overbought territory and well as SPX Stoch.  Watch for a pull back to 1100 for the next move in the market.

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