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Monday
08Feb2010

Who dat charts

SPX:SPX Hourly: Oversold on this time frame but still in a strong downtrendNYAD- still looks bearish, the 8 ema now looks like it will cross the 39.  NYAD was still red on Friday and did not reverse with the market. 

NYSI- Broke its prior support at this level, may trend down more.  NYSI is getting closer to zero which would be very bearish for market.  Notice how accurate the BB% moving average cross indication has been.  The green line shows the last signal it gave which was prior to this drop.

Friday
05Feb2010

Missing: Bulls

UPDATE: Make that 7 for 7 now!

Yesterday the bulls went missing the bears had complete control over the market.  The UpVolume/NY TOTAL Volume ratio was a .03. 

This is the 7th time this has happened since 1970.  But this has been a more recent occurrence.  The last time this happened was on 11/27/09.  Here was the post I made that day 

Here is each occurrence of the .03 Volume ratio:

So now it has been 6 of 6 times the next day has been up after a .03 ratio day.  November 29th the day after the last .03 was up.  Breaking these numbers down more, 5 days after a .03 day the 4 out of 6 the market was up. 10 days after, 5 out of 6 were up and 15 days after 5 out of 6 were up.  The only caveat is those few down days were rough with the smallest being almost a 2% drop in the SPX. 

 

This volume ratio could signal that the decline is near for at least 15 days.  Short stops should be tightened.

 

Thursday
04Feb2010

Charts

NYAD below key moving averages]

SPX: Comments on chart

Wednesday
03Feb2010

Chart Pattern of the Week Descending Triangle

Here is a new feature for the site, each week there will be an example of a techincal chart pattern.

The triangle pattern is one of my favorite patterns to trade.  It provides a clear entry, a clean exit/target and its easy to spot.  For the pattern to be formed it needs to have a clear base that has formed over a few days and the stock also must be trending down towards the base.

Here is an example of a beautiful Descending Triangle:

The bottom was formed by the two reaction lows in Nov and Dec.  This formed a support level that would eventually form the bottom of the triangle.  The stock then failed to make a new high after bouncing off the support level in Dec the downtrend line was now established.  In the case of this stock, a tighter descending triangle formed. Either triangle was in play.

It is also important to notice volume, it should contract while the price remains in the triangle and volume should increase when the base of the triangle is broken.

The most important thing to notice here is how many times the stock attacked the support level. Here is a key rule in technical analysis "THE MORE A SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE LEVEL IS TESTED THE WEAKER IT BECOMES".

If you were a risky trader you could of shorted after seeing BPOP testing the 2.11 level.  The safe play was to short around 2.10-2.08 and set your stop at 2.12. 

Now that the bottom of the triangle is broken targets can be placed.  When it comes to a descending triangle, or any triangle a target is the size of the triangle.  The size of the triangle is measured from the base to the top of the triangle.  The target is the size of the triangle minus the break of the base.

So in this case, you can chose two targets the larger triangle is 2.63-2.11=.52  so then its 2.11-.52=1.59
Or you can use the smaller triangle and its 2.40-2.11=.29 so then its 2.11-.29=1.82

Here is more information on a Descending Triangle

If you want to learn about chart patterns check out INO.COM's TV, for the price you pay it is amazing the amount of information you get. Each video is informative and comes with a pdf to read along. You would have to spend thousands of dollars in books to get all the information that INO.COM has. CHECK IT OUT!

 

Tuesday
02Feb2010

Some Charts

 

DJUSEN- DIG and DUG track this.

TLT: