2.10% Ten Year and the Market

Here is one chart which shows the bulls might be having the slight edge here.  It shows the 10 year and SPX since  Operation Twist started, when the Ten Year began to remain below 2.4% .  The pattern here is each time the Ten Year yield got above 2.10% the market has declined lower.  Most recentally it got  to 2.4%, before the market started to take.  Now TNX is sitting at its lows of this range.

Ten Year yield all the way to lows which typically mark a bottom of a rally.  The market has barely declined while SPY is near these levels.  In fact most the of the time the market advances  TNX gets above 2.10%.

There is a pattern here that is worth noting and if it continues would be bullish for the market.  Right now becoming bearish at level where the market never sold off is risky.  Especially since for the last month yields as been declining indicating a flight to saftey. Which means that the bearish sentiment is very high and the market can shift out of bonds into stocks.  Still would need to see SPY get above 141.82 to get to bullish.

What may be forecasting is a push higher in the market and selling of bonds right to about end of May or early June, when TNX is above 2.10% and the market is near 1500.  Then the market tanks as the feds near a market in fear and selling to keep Operation Twist going.

Of course there is lots of fed involvement in this, with QE’s and Operation twist.  Plus patterns break constantly in the market so this can be wrong but overall it is something to note.