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« SPX tests its new down trend | Main | Financial stocks and the overall market »
Thursday
Feb112010

NYSI nearing a danger zone

NYSI broke its support level around 356 a few days ago when the market was dropping.  Now NYSI has dropped below 200 and is hearing alarms by the bulls saying "Warning Warning Pull Up Pull Up".  NYSI currently is parked at 150 very close to the zero line.  A cross of this would be bearish for the market. Crosses of the zero line produce by and sell signals since this is a neutral line and moves above or below signal a change in the market.  But when it crosses the zero line downwards it is bearish.   "Tom McCleallan says that when the Mclellan summation Index drops below the zero line, it is a precursor for a bear market."(Market Breadth Indicators, Murphy). 

NYSI should be one of your favorite indicators to look at

"The McClellan Summation index generally oscillates between 0 and 2000 although it can move outside of this range during extreme or unusual market conditions. Historically, major market bottoms occur after the index falls below -1000. Readings above +1600 often indicate a major top is near. Top and bottom signals carry more significance if the index is also diverging from the associated market average. According to the McClellans, the beginning of a new bull market is signaled if the NYSE-based Summation index first moves below the -1200 level and then quickly rises above +2500." (STOCKCHARTS.COM)

Now take a look at the chart below, look where 1600+ is?  Now look at the divergence as SPX made its new high, NYSI didn't.  So 1600+ could have marked the top correctly.  Let's see if  a break of zero happens giving a signal a bear market might be near.

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