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« SPX failing at longer-term resistance | Main | Snowballed! »
Monday
Mar082010

The market is overbought

The market is very overbought, at this point SPX has rallied 6.3% since its close on 2/5.  The Stoch on SPX are showing signals of an overbought market but there are also other non-traditional indicators that are showing overbought. Here are charts that I use to show me overbought or oversold.

NYTV ratios:
When the Up-volume to total volume gets to extremes is can be seen in this chart as the moving average climbs above the overbought line at the .65 level.  This means that 65% volume is up, so the crowd is heavy on the bull side.  This overbought condition can be seen as also in the Down-Volume to total Volume ratio.  You can see from the chart the right now the down-volume makes up 32% of the market. This historically very low. 
These have been good indicators of overbought and oversold markets.

MEGA B:
This chart is similar to the NYTV volume ratios, expect this chart does not have ratios.  Instead it is a moving average of Up and Down volume.  Again the market has certain extremes and when the moving averages go below them it signals an overbought or an oversold condition.  For this purpose overbought is when the Down Volume moving average is below the green line.  Oversold is when the Up-Volume is below its purple line.

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