Main PageMain Pagehttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010-03-11T13:15:33ZSquarespaceSPX 60 Min den of bearish divergenceshttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/11/spx-60-min-den-of-bearish-divergences.htmlPikertrader2010-03-11T13:00:00Z2010-03-11T13:00:00ZNotice the three bearish divergences in the MACD on the 60 min SPX Chart

]]>Jump on this train!http://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/11/jump-on-this-train.htmlPikertrader2010-03-11T12:16:00Z2010-03-11T12:16:00Z

CPC has moved into Very Bullish terriotory which means the market is heavily skewed to the bullish side.  What happens when the everyone and their mother is bullish.  The market goes the other way!

 This uber-bullishness is show in the NYTV total ratio chart I've been showing you.  Now 75% of the market is moving up.  That means 3/4 of the market volume is up, this can't continue forever that is fo' sho.

 Check out Serge over at ETF Corner's look at the Bull Train

 The market is way overbought and bullish, I am still saying that we are seeing a top being put in and that we should move down from these levels.

 

]]>Oilhttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/11/oil.htmlPikertrader2010-03-11T11:43:11Z2010-03-11T11:43:11ZWatch the 81.30 level this is the first bull support level that might be tested.

 Take a look at Market Club's Trade Triangles.  A daily sell triangle was given on Wednesday. For MarketClub Alerts on any stock, futures or commodities Click Here

 

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And here is Market Clubs trend analysis

Click Here for free trend analysis

]]>The Consumer and his pocketshttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/10/the-consumer-and-his-pockets.htmlPikertrader2010-03-10T23:09:32Z2010-03-10T23:09:32ZBelow is a chart of XLY which is the consumer discretionary.  Discretionary income is money people have to spend on crap.  The economy is dependent on you spending your money on crap.  Tomorrow retail numbers come out and the government is hoping you spent the little money you have on crap. 

When looking at the Bullish Percentage Index of Consumer Discretionary Income, it is showing signs of Overbought.  A BP above 75 is considered overbought, BPDISC is at 82.  It is also nearing some long term monthly resistance levels seen on the chart.

Now look at the technicals of this ETF:

Two things pop out at me.  First is the long-term bearish divergence that has been going on since June.  Secondly, XLY is very overbought based on the the STOCH.  This ETF is looking like it might be losing steam the steam needed to climb through the longer-term resistance levels.  Keep this guy on your short radar.

 

]]>SPX failing at longer-term resistancehttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/8/spx-failing-at-longer-term-resistance.htmlPikertrader2010-03-09T01:45:00Z2010-03-09T01:45:00ZToday the market formed a doji as the bulls were unable to get above 1141.05.  When looking at the daily chart it is hard to see where the resistance is coming from at 1141.  It is only when you zoom out to a weekly chart that see what is acting as resistance at 1141. 

The 1141 level is the 200EMA for the weekly SPX chart.  This moving average has acted as previous resistance as well.  It contained the rally in January and looks to be trying to contain it again.  SPX is also being contained by the down trendline that begins in Oct and connects to the January high.

If we zoom out even further to the montly SPX chart, there is a pair of moving average that are acting as resistance.  On the monthly SPX Chart 50 Day EMA is at 1145 and the 89 EMA is at 1149. These moving averages like the weekly 200EMA capped the rally in January.

Here is the daily chart showing today's doji and the 1141-1145 resistance level. Also notice the overbought Stoch that matches the overbought observation from the post below.

I mentioned Friday in pre-market (see Friday's post) that the top should be around 1135, I still think we are seeing a topping process and there may be a short-term move to 1145-1150 but the market won't close at those levels.

]]>The market is overboughthttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/8/the-market-is-overbought.htmlPikertrader2010-03-08T23:21:05Z2010-03-08T23:21:05ZThe market is very overbought, at this point SPX has rallied 6.3% since its close on 2/5.  The Stoch on SPX are showing signals of an overbought market but there are also other non-traditional indicators that are showing overbought. Here are charts that I use to show me overbought or oversold.

NYTV ratios:
When the Up-volume to total volume gets to extremes is can be seen in this chart as the moving average climbs above the overbought line at the .65 level.  This means that 65% volume is up, so the crowd is heavy on the bull side.  This overbought condition can be seen as also in the Down-Volume to total Volume ratio.  You can see from the chart the right now the down-volume makes up 32% of the market. This historically very low. 
These have been good indicators of overbought and oversold markets.

MEGA B:
This chart is similar to the NYTV volume ratios, expect this chart does not have ratios.  Instead it is a moving average of Up and Down volume.  Again the market has certain extremes and when the moving averages go below them it signals an overbought or an oversold condition.  For this purpose overbought is when the Down Volume moving average is below the green line.  Oversold is when the Up-Volume is below its purple line.

]]>Snowballed!http://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/5/snowballed.htmlPikertrader2010-03-05T12:49:21Z2010-03-05T12:49:21Z

Blame it on the snow! That's right today's jobless numbers will be solely because of the snow we saw in February, the shitty economy had nothing to do it with.  According to CNBC the snow in the North East(a section of the U.S) caused this high number.  Now the media is blaming mother nature for the economy's problem.  Brilliant! Who believes this crap!

]]>Jobless Chartshttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/5/jobless-charts.htmlPikertrader2010-03-05T12:34:29Z2010-03-05T12:34:29ZSPX Daily Chart: Will be watching the 1131 level as resistance.

SPX Weekly:  Watching the down trendline since the start of this bear market

NYSI: This oscillator is nearing a turning point, just have to wait for the stars to align.   See the green line for the last time the stars aligned

 I am starting to think this market tops around 1135

]]>Are the bears wishing on an inverted shooting starhttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/3/are-the-bears-wishing-on-an-inverted-shooting-star.htmlPikertrader2010-03-03T12:49:16Z2010-03-03T12:49:16Zoverbought]]>NYAD makes a new highhttp://www.pikertrader.com/main-page/2010/3/2/nyad-makes-a-new-high.htmlPikertrader2010-03-02T11:51:36Z2010-03-02T11:51:36ZNYAD has begun to lead price action.  Yesterday it made a new high, so while there is is some bearish divergence in the market (see post below) the internals support further upside. In fact if the pervious pattern plays out the market could be in for another 3 months of upward movements.  Notice how each time NYAD dipped below it's 39ema and back up it has advanced for about four months.  Another strong up day could destory the divergences we are seeing and help move the market up.

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