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SPX failing at longer-term resistance

Pikertrader — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:45:00 +0000

Today the market formed a doji as the bulls were unable to get above 1141.05. When looking at the daily chart it is hard to see where the resistance is coming from at 1141. It is only when you zoom out to a weekly chart that see what is acting as resistance at 1141.

The 1141 level is the 200EMA for the weekly SPX chart. This moving average has acted as previous resistance as well. It contained the rally in January and looks to be trying to contain it again. SPX is also being contained by the down trendline that begins in Oct and connects to the January high.

If we zoom out even further to the montly SPX chart, there is a pair of moving average that are acting as resistance. On the monthly SPX Chart 50 Day EMA is at 1145 and the 89 EMA is at 1149. These moving averages like the weekly 200EMA capped the rally in January.

Here is the daily chart showing today's doji and the 1141-1145 resistance level. Also notice the overbought Stoch that matches the overbought observation from the post below.

I mentioned Friday in pre-market (see Friday's post) that the top should be around 1135, I still think we are seeing a topping process and there may be a short-term move to 1145-1150 but the market won't close at those levels.

The market is overbought

Pikertrader — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 23:21:05 +0000

The market is very overbought, at this point SPX has rallied 6.3% since its close on 2/5. The Stoch on SPX are showing signals of an overbought market but there are also other non-traditional indicators that are showing overbought. Here are charts that I use to show me overbought or oversold.

NYTV ratios:
When the Up-volume to total volume gets to extremes is can be seen in this chart as the moving average climbs above the overbought line at the .65 level. This means that 65% volume is up, so the crowd is heavy on the bull side. This overbought condition can be seen as also in the Down-Volume to total Volume ratio. You can see from the chart the right now the down-volume makes up 32% of the market. This historically very low.
These have been good indicators of overbought and oversold markets.

MEGA B:
This chart is similar to the NYTV volume ratios, expect this chart does not have ratios. Instead it is a moving average of Up and Down volume. Again the market has certain extremes and when the moving averages go below them it signals an overbought or an oversold condition. For this purpose overbought is when the Down Volume moving average is below the green line. Oversold is when the Up-Volume is below its purple line.

Snowballed!

Pikertrader — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:49:21 +0000

Blame it on the snow! That's right today's jobless numbers will be solely because of the snow we saw in February, the shitty economy had nothing to do it with. According to CNBC the snow in the North East(a section of the U.S) caused this high number. Now the media is blaming mother nature for the economy's problem. Brilliant! Who believes this crap!

Jobless Charts

Pikertrader — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:34:29 +0000

SPX Daily Chart: Will be watching the 1131 level as resistance.

SPX Weekly: Watching the down trendline since the start of this bear market

NYSI: This oscillator is nearing a turning point, just have to wait for the stars to align. See the green line for the last time the stars aligned

I am starting to think this market tops around 1135

Are the bears wishing on an inverted shooting star

Pikertrader — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:49:16 +0000

overbought

NYAD makes a new high

Pikertrader — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:51:36 +0000

NYAD has begun to lead price action. Yesterday it made a new high, so while there is is some bearish divergence in the market (see post below) the internals support further upside. In fact if the pervious pattern plays out the market could be in for another 3 months of upward movements. Notice how each time NYAD dipped below it's 39ema and back up it has advanced for about four months. Another strong up day could destory the divergences we are seeing and help move the market up.

Divergence in NYMO

Pikertrader — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 02:43:00 +0000

NYMO divergence has been an accurate predictor of trend reversals. The rally that started last week was preceded by a NYMO bullish divergence. Now NYMO is showing bearish divergence although it is a little weak, but SPX has made a high above 1100 while NYMO has not made a new high.

SPX 60 Min Divergence

Pikertrader — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 22:33:06 +0000

There is a bearish divergence forming on a 60 min chart of SPX. SPX has made a new high above it's high on the 22nd, but MACD has not followed this movement. The Stoch is also very overbought. Market is looking like it might chop around at these levels.

Sticky black stuff and it's friends (DJUSEN)

Pikertrader — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 13:04:35 +0000

DJUSEN looking weak again- one thing that has been great with this chart is those horizontal lines have not changed since I made the chart. They have been accurate reversal points for each stock and the DJUSEN index.

The pretty yellow stuff

Pikertrader — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 12:12:50 +0000

GLD- Nearing the top of resistance and its down channel. Resistance is at 110.60 and 113. Looking at the indicators for set up for a trade, the Stoch has giving a weak sell signal and MACD has failed to move above zero. GLD also has two gaps that have yet to be filled, the first one is more likely to get filled then the gap at 100. Look for weakness if GLD breaks 108.63

DZZ- Double inverse gold, looks exactly like GLD but more bullish. Which it should since it is an inverse etf!

Here is Market Clubs take on GLD

">For more trend analysis link this click the link below