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Entries in NYTV (3)

Thursday
May202010

Roll the Dice 1 in 4 chances of a crash and 5 out of 5 of a new low

DateThursday, May 20, 2010 at 9:13PM

Well slap me around and call me Susan, the bears got a nice victory again today.  There was so much selling that 99% of the volume was to the downside.  Giving the NYUPV/NYTV ratio a .01.  This has happened only a few times.  Here they are:

 4 out of the 5 times the market was up the next day.  There was one day when the market didn't go up, the 1987 crash.  The last 4 times this occurred, the market rebounded and was positive 15 days later.  All expect that one time the 1987 crash.  Also notice that the .01 ratio happened twice in October of 1987, with the second time marking the rebound.  So had you bought at the close today you have a 4 in 5 chance of being positive tomorrow and a 1 in 4 chance of getting wiped out by a crash.  Its your move holy man!

If you are thinking longer term here are the charts following the .01 events

19871997

2007

2008

5 out of 5 times the .01 ratio has signaled that lower lows will come. 3 out of the 5 came within a few days.  2 of the 5 came within a month or two.  Those are pretty good odds, we aren't going to rally to new highs anytime soon.  But if you look at the chart, once those lows are in the market has rallied. 

 

AuthorPikertrader | CommentPost a Comment |
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Friday
May072010

Exterme!

DateFriday, May 7, 2010 at 1:00AM

Here are a few internals that are showing exterme lows.

NYTV:NYUPV RATIO: Today was a .04

NYMO- Dropped below -100


NYAD- Dropped below its 39 EMA and its lower BB. Notice the last this occured.  Take note though it has never happened this fast.

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Monday
Mar082010

The market is overbought

DateMonday, March 8, 2010 at 6:21PM

The market is very overbought, at this point SPX has rallied 6.3% since its close on 2/5.  The Stoch on SPX are showing signals of an overbought market but there are also other non-traditional indicators that are showing overbought. Here are charts that I use to show me overbought or oversold.

NYTV ratios:
When the Up-volume to total volume gets to extremes is can be seen in this chart as the moving average climbs above the overbought line at the .65 level.  This means that 65% volume is up, so the crowd is heavy on the bull side.  This overbought condition can be seen as also in the Down-Volume to total Volume ratio.  You can see from the chart the right now the down-volume makes up 32% of the market. This historically very low. 
These have been good indicators of overbought and oversold markets.

MEGA B:
This chart is similar to the NYTV volume ratios, expect this chart does not have ratios.  Instead it is a moving average of Up and Down volume.  Again the market has certain extremes and when the moving averages go below them it signals an overbought or an oversold condition.  For this purpose overbought is when the Down Volume moving average is below the green line.  Oversold is when the Up-Volume is below its purple line.

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